1) For late 21st century mean climate change projections the greatest sources of uncertainty are as- sociated with emission/concentration scenarios and inter-model (AOGCM) configuration differ- ences.
What is the largest source of projection uncertainty in climate models?
In the near term (years to one to two decades in the future), natural climate variability is the largest source of uncertainty in climate projections. For time periods approximately 30 to 50 years out, scientific uncertainty about the climate system is the largest source of uncertainty in climate projections.
What is the main source of uncertainty in climate projections?
There are three main sources of uncertainty in projections of climate: that due to future emissions (scenario uncertainty, green), due to internal climate variability (orange), and due to inter-model differences (blue).
What is the largest source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity?
The representation of clouds is widely regarded as the largest source of uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity obtained by global climate models (GCMs) (Boucher et al.
What is uncertainty in climate?
Uncertainty is not exclusive to climate change and adaptation. … Some relevant descriptions of uncertainty include: A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable.
What are the two main uncertainties in climate research?
The discussion is placed within the context of the identification of two categories of uncertainty source, the Knowledge Uncertainty due to our imperfect knowledge and representation of the prob- lem, and the Intrinsic Uncertainty inherent to the problem.
What is the primary source of uncertainty for how much Earth’s climate will warm by the end of the century?
Such direct observational evidence is limited, however, and clouds remain the biggest source of uncertainty–apart from human choices to control greenhouse gases—in predicting how much the climate will change.
What is meant by internal variability in the climate system?
Internal variability is natural climate variability and results from processes intrinsic to the climate system, in particular coupled interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and cryosphere.
How could the warming of ocean temperatures have been underestimated?
In principle, water in the oceans acts like a mercury thermometer: when the temperature goes up, the liquid expands and climbs up the little tube. … “To date, we have underestimated how much the heat-related expansion of the water mass in the oceans contributes to a global rise in sea level,” says Dr.
What is climate change history?
Climate change is the long-term alteration in Earth’s climate and weather patterns. It took nearly a century of research and data to convince the vast majority of the scientific community that human activity could alter the climate of our entire planet.
What is climate sensitivity quizlet?
Terms in this set (9)
Climate Sensititivity. the measure of how much the Earth’s global mean temperature will change in response to radiative forcing. Radiative Forcing. a change in the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing thermal radiation.
What is meant by the climate sensitivity?
Climate sensitivity is typically defined as the global temperature rise following a doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial levels. Pre-industrial CO2 was about 260 parts per million (ppm), so a doubling would be at roughly 520 ppm.
What is climate sensitivity range?
Your team was able to narrow the range of estimates of Earth’s climate sensitivity by more than 43 percent, from the previously accepted range of 1.5 to 4.5 Kelvin first established in 1979 (roughly 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit), to a narrower range of 2.6 to 3.9 Kelvin (roughly 4.5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit).
What is the big uncertainty about climate change?
Uncertainty about the climate system does not decrease risk associated with greenhouse gas emissions, because it works in both directions: climate change could prove to be less severe than current estimates, but could also prove to be worse.
What is climate projection?
Climate projections are simulations of Earth’s climate in future decades (typically until 2100) based on assumed ‘scenarios’ for the concentrations of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other atmospheric constituents that affect the planet’s radiative balance.